🔗 Share this article

Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|